I am having the most sucess in brackets I have had in years. I picked 11 of the 16 teams that are still alive, and three of my four Final Four Teams are still alive (Louisville, Kentucky, and Illinois).
The picks I am most proud of are picking Texas Tech and North Carolina State and Utah to both be there. (I have Tech losing to Louisville in the elite 8).
I have some guiding principles that helped me this year:
1. Good coaches that have been somewhere longer than 3 years are going to be more sucessful in the tourney than talent and record demonstrate (Texas Tech, Louisville, Michigan State are all examples of this).
2. Hot teams are good upset picks, especially if they come from strong conferences (Villinova, NC State, Texas Tech, and especially West Virginia which I did not see coming but should)
3. More and more in the new NCAA, it is the coaches that will be the stars even more than the players. They will be the major difference maker. Like it or not, Knight could lead just about any team to a conference final and the Sweet 16. As could Pitino. This is strongly tied to point 1, but I did not want to rewrite this whole thing.
4. Strong programs may have up and down years, but they will always rise back to the top. You can never count out an Arizona, Utah, or Kentucky.
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